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Tuesday, April 26, 2011

Plan Development With Eye on Worst Case Scenarios

editorial:

On 26 April in 1986, the world’s worst nuclear fallout took place at Chernobyl in USSR. It was not a nuclear bomb that released radiation several times higher than the atom bombs detonated over Hiroshima and Nagasaki, but a peaceful nuclear power plant. Most people have forgotten Chernobyl and to jog memories a bit, it is worth recording that Chernobyl had state of the art [even by present standards] safety mechanisms in place. The whole incident was a horrific accident; an experiment that went wrong with no mala fide intent. The tsunami in Japan rolled back just as suddenly as it had swept in, but more than a month down the line, the horror of nuclear radiation [from a power plant again] continues to grow more nightmarish. No one will argue with the fact that Japan sets the bar on ‘state-of-the-art’ and would have deployed it at its nuclear reactors. And still they leaked.
The reason remembering Chernobyl and learning from Japan makes sense in Sikkim is because the State too is on a heightened development mode.
The lesson to be underlined on the anniversary of Chernobyl is not that things “go wrong,” rather, it is that things “could go wrong.” We learn from the past, and not always our own, not to abandon ideas, but to avoid the mistakes. Sikkim has identified hydel power generation and tourism as the primary thrust sectors for its future economy. No one can fault this focus. What Sikkim needs to ensure is that all worst-case-scenarios are identified and back-up plans prepared in advance. This process has to be frank and open and every fear, no matter how farfetched, addressed and resolved. Unplanned development returns to haunt and no one knows this better than Sikkim. Take Gangtok’s example, everyone knows that a big earthquake will wreck tremendous damage on the capital. Had the planners included this obvious threat before they allowed Gangtok to explode into a city, one might have still been able to make it safer. But now we can only pray. All developmental works for the future should thus rely more on planning and not just the grace of guardian deities.

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